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Reuters Survey: 70% of Analysts Expect Fed to Hold Rates in September

Finance · Major Banks · yonhap_finance · 2026-09-10

A Reuters survey of Wall Street experts shows 70% expect the Fed to keep rates steady this month, though sentiment is shifting toward potential hikes.

What Happened

September Rate Outlook: A Reuters survey of 93 Wall Street economists and analysts indicates that 70% expect the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting. This marks a decline from the 90% consensus recorded in the previous month, with 30% now anticipating a 25-basis-point hike.

Year-End Policy Path: Expectations for a rate freeze through December have dropped significantly to 56%, down from 80% in the prior month. Conversely, the proportion of analysts predicting at least one rate increase by the end of the year has risen sharply, reflecting growing market uncertainty.

Market Discrepancy: In contrast to the survey, CME FedWatch data currently assigns a 60.2% probability to a rate hike this month. This divergence is attributed to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s decision to abandon forward guidance and his recent hawkish rhetoric, which has influenced market expectations.

Key Economic Indicators: Market participants are now closely monitoring the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on the 11th. With internal divisions among Fed officials regarding the path of interest rates, the upcoming inflation data is expected to be a critical driver of market volatility.

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