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Nomura Asset Management: AI Supply Chain Enters Scaling Phase, Advises 'Gradual Profit-Taking'
Finance · Investment Managers · cnyes · 2026-08-31
Nomura highlights strong fundamentals for the AI supply chain as Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform ramps up, suggesting investors capture gains while preparing for potential cyclical shifts by 2028.
What Happened
AI Supply Chain Momentum: Nvidia has officially commenced mass production of its Spectrum-X silicon photonics switches, signaling the start of large-scale shipments for the Vera Rubin platform. Key sectors including optical communications, server rails, and thermal management are already seeing better-than-expected revenue growth as the supply chain benefits from increased volumes and higher unit prices.
Market Tailwinds: AI capital expenditure remains robust, with major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) projecting 2027 spending to reach $1 trillion, indicating the infrastructure investment cycle has yet to peak. Corporate earnings estimates have been revised upward for eight consecutive months, and the Asian supply chain continues to enjoy high visibility through 2028 due to ongoing specification upgrades and supply shortages.
Risk Factors: Investors must remain cautious of non-fundamental headwinds, including geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and interest rate volatility, which could trigger valuation corrections. Additionally, any sustained deterioration in CSP free cash flow could eventually lead to a slowdown in capital expenditures, pressuring inventory and capacity utilization for suppliers.
Investment Strategy: While the current AI boom is expected to persist, investors should prioritize risk management and avoid overly cyclical stocks. A disciplined approach of "staying invested while gradually taking profits" is recommended, favoring well-managed funds or ETFs to ensure liquidity for future market corrections.