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Korea Investment & Securities Cuts H2 Won-Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast to 1,380
Finance · Investment Banks/Brokers · yonhap_finance · 2026-09-10
Korea Investment & Securities has lowered its average H2 KRW/USD forecast by 40 won to 1,380, citing aggressive dollar selling by exporters and yen strength.
What Happened
Forecast Adjustment: Korea Investment & Securities has revised its average KRW/USD exchange rate forecast for the second half of the year to 1,380, down 40 won from its previous estimate. The firm projects a trading range of 1,280 to 1,420 for the remainder of the year.
Drivers of Decline: Analyst Moon Da-woon attributed the downward revision to aggressive dollar selling by domestic exporters and a broader weakening of the dollar driven by the strengthening Japanese yen. The report notes that the market has clearly broken below the 1,340 level, with limited signs of a reversal in buying sentiment.
Potential for Further Volatility: While the 1,300 level is expected to act as a psychological support, the analyst warned that a breach could lead to a rapid move into the 1,200 range. However, the firm expects the exchange rate to eventually stabilize back into the mid-1,300s after any temporary undershooting.
Stabilizing Factors: The report highlights that interventions such as the Foreign Exchange Stabilization Fund's dollar purchases and the National Pension Service's decision to resume dollar buying will likely prevent a sustained collapse. Consequently, the average rate for the fourth quarter is expected to settle in the 1,300 range.