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Daishin Securities: Natural Gas Prices to Rebound Next Year After El Niño Slump

Energy Minerals · Oil & Gas Production · yonhap_finance · 2026-09-03

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Daishin Securities expects natural gas prices to remain weak through the end of the year due to El Niño, but forecasts a rebound in 2024.

What Happened

Price Weakness: Natural gas prices are expected to remain under pressure through the end of the year as El Niño conditions lead to warmer-than-average winter temperatures. This anticipated decline in heating demand is currently weighing on market sentiment.

Climate Shift: Meteorological models suggest that the current El Niño pattern will peak early next year before transitioning to a neutral state. This shift is expected to dissipate the current downward pressure on natural gas prices, creating a more favorable environment for a recovery.

European Supply Risks: Europe faces ongoing energy challenges as heatwaves and droughts impact river levels, hindering coal transport and hydroelectric power generation. Reduced nuclear output due to high water temperatures further tightens the power supply, potentially driving up demand for natural gas.

Investment Outlook: Historical data from previous El Niño-to-neutral transitions suggests a potential for a significant price rebound in the coming year. Analysts recommend maintaining a long-term optimistic view, looking past current seasonal weakness toward a potential market cycle shift in 2024.

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