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US Midterm Elections Historically Boost US and Taiwan Markets with 100% Win Rate
Electronic Technology · Semiconductors · economic_daily · 2026-11-04
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Historical data shows that US and Taiwan markets have consistently rallied following the last seven US midterm elections, with average gains of 9.22% and 9.61% respectively as focus shifts back to corporate fundamentals.
What Happened
Historical Performance: Data from 1998 to 2022 reveals that both US and Taiwan stock markets have posted gains in every instance following the last seven US midterm elections. With average returns of 9.22% for US stocks and 9.61% for the Taiwan Weighted Index, the historical trend suggests that the dissipation of political uncertainty provides a favorable environment for market growth.
AI Investment Momentum: Despite recent market concerns regarding the cost and return on investment for AI, major tech giants including Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta maintain aggressive capital expenditure plans. Projections indicate that these four companies will invest approximately $730 billion by 2026, ensuring continued demand for AI infrastructure and related technologies.
Supply Chain Impact: Taiwan remains a critical hub in the global AI supply chain, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing, advanced packaging, high-speed transmission, and thermal management. As cloud service providers continue to scale their infrastructure, Taiwanese firms are well-positioned to capture significant value from the ongoing expansion of AI capabilities.
Investment Strategy: Financial analysts suggest that investors should pivot their focus toward corporate fundamentals, prioritizing industry leaders with strong technical moats and consistent R&D investment. Given current valuations in the tech sector, a disciplined approach that balances technical competitive advantages with reasonable earnings growth is essential for navigating market volatility.