News / Taiwan / cnyes
Mega Financial Holding Sees NTD Trading Between 31-33, Warns of Potential Fed Rate Hike
Finance · Major Banks · cnyes · 2026-08-27
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Mega Financial Holding expects Taiwan's economy to show a 'front-high, back-low' trend, with the NTD fluctuating between 31 and 33 against the USD.
What Happened
Economic Outlook: Mega Financial Holding's President Chang Chuan-chang stated that Taiwan's economy is expected to follow a 'front-high, back-low' trajectory in the second half of the year. Despite challenges such as a high base effect and the verification phase of AI investments, robust global tech capital expenditures are expected to sustain growth.
Monetary Policy and Forex: The company suggests that if inflation remains higher than anticipated, the Federal Reserve may not rule out a rate hike by the end of the year, with short-term rates projected between 3.5% and 3.75%. Consequently, the USD/TWD exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within a range of 31 to 33.
Asset Management Strategy: To navigate policy uncertainty, Mega Bank is prioritizing a defensive and flexible asset allocation strategy, with USD assets accounting for approximately 64% of its foreign currency holdings. The bank has shifted its fixed-income portfolio toward floating-rate instruments while planning to gradually increase fixed-rate bond holdings as yields rise.
Cross-Border Services: In response to geopolitical shifts and supply chain regionalization, Mega Financial is leveraging its overseas network to provide comprehensive cross-border financing and consulting services. The bank aims to support Taiwanese businesses in adapting to structural supply chain changes through tailored credit structures and professional financial solutions.