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Semiconductor Funds Shift Ahead of Nvidia Earnings: UMC and PSMC Surge as TSMC Dips

Electronic Technology · Semiconductors · economic_daily · 2026-08-24

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As Nvidia's earnings approach, Taiwan's semiconductor sector sees a rotation of funds, with UMC and PSMC rallying on volume while TSMC tests lower support levels.

What Happened

Market Dynamics: With Nvidia's earnings report imminent, capital in the Taiwanese semiconductor sector is showing signs of rotation. TSMC shares have faced downward pressure, briefly slipping below the 2,400 TWD mark, while UMC and PSMC have attracted significant buying interest, with UMC hitting the daily limit at one point.

Fundamental Drivers: UMC is benefiting from tightening supply in mature process nodes, with utilization rates expected to exceed 90% in Q3 and increased capital expenditure targeting AI-related opportunities. Meanwhile, PSMC is pivoting toward advanced packaging and 3D AI Foundry services, securing international certifications that bolster its long-term outlook.

Institutional Divergence: Despite the positive fundamental narrative, institutional investors have been net sellers of UMC and PSMC recently. The contrast between heavy institutional selling and strong retail or speculative buying volume suggests a significant divergence in market sentiment regarding the recovery of mature process nodes.

Key Outlook: The upcoming Nvidia earnings report will serve as a litmus test for whether AI demand can effectively spill over into the mature process and advanced packaging segments. Investors are closely watching whether TSMC can hold its support levels and if the current rally in UMC and PSMC can be sustained post-earnings.

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