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Piper Sandler Bullish on Robinhood as NFL Season Set to Boost Prediction Market Revenue
Finance · Investment Banks/Brokers · cnbc · 2026-09-03
HOOD, HOOD, PIPR
Piper Sandler raised its price target on Robinhood to $145, citing the upcoming football season as a major catalyst for its prediction market venture, Rothera.
What Happened
Analyst Outlook and Price Target: Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley has raised his price target for Robinhood (HOOD) from $135 to $145, maintaining an overweight rating on the stock. This adjustment follows a 5% and 7% increase in EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027, respectively, driven by expectations of strong performance in the company's prediction market segment.
Prediction Market Growth Catalyst: The upcoming football season is expected to serve as a significant revenue driver for Rothera, the prediction market joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna. Following successful engagement during the World Cup, analysts believe the US-centric user base will show high interest in NFL and NCAA football contracts, which have received regulatory approval from the CFTC.
Market Share Dynamics: Robinhood has been successfully shifting its user volume away from Kalshi toward its own Rothera platform since its launch in June. Data indicates that Robinhood's contribution to Kalshi's total volume has dropped to the mid-single digits, as the company increasingly captures the activity of its own user base within its proprietary exchange.
Revenue Projections and Trends: Piper Sandler estimates that Robinhood users could trade approximately 29.7 billion event contracts between September and December, potentially generating $320 million in revenue. While sports betting remains a key component, the firm notes that the overall mix of contracts on prediction platforms is diversifying beyond major sports, reducing reliance on football alone.