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UBS Trims Smartphone Outlook Amid Memory Supply Crunch, Highlights Key Taiwan Tech Stocks
Electronic Technology · Semiconductors · economic_daily · 2026-09-22
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UBS warns that rising memory costs will pressure the smartphone industry through 2027, prompting a downward revision in shipment forecasts and a selective investment approach.
What Happened
Memory Supply Constraints: UBS reports that memory manufacturers are prioritizing AI and cloud clients, creating significant procurement bottlenecks for smartphone OEMs. The upward cycle for DRAM and NAND is expected to persist through 2028, with memory costs accounting for a larger share of device bills of materials.
Shipment Forecast Downgrade: Due to margin compression and potential demand risks from price hikes, UBS has lowered its 2027 global smartphone shipment forecast to 1.11 billion units, a 3% year-over-year decline. A modest recovery of 2% growth is not anticipated until 2028.
Brand Resilience: Apple and Samsung are expected to outperform the broader market and gain market share thanks to their robust high-end product portfolios. UBS remains particularly optimistic about the upcoming iPhone Duo, projecting 10 million units in its first year.
Taiwan Stock Strategy: UBS advises a selective approach toward the Taiwan supply chain amid these headwinds. While TSMC maintains a 'Buy' rating, the firm has adopted a more cautious 'Sell' stance on other specific tech-related stocks within the sector.
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